Obameter #193: Summit on Nuclear Terrorism

Einstein proved that a little matter can be converted to a massive amount of energy. Atoms of some isotopes of some elements are capable of breaking down into several smaller atoms in such a way that some mass is lost and, thus, a great amount of energy is gained. Uranium-235 is one such isotope, the only naturally-occurring isotope of any element that can sustain a chain reaction of atomic fission; that is, that the fission of one atom can trigger the fission of another, over and over until the U235 is all used up. Thus, a great enough mass of U235 at a sufficiently extreme density can cause a massive output of energy - an atomic chain reaction. The theoretical maximum energy production is 19.54 TJ/mol - in other words, one mole of U235 (235 g or ½ pound) is enough to heat 18 Olympic swimming pools from frozen to boiling.

Click to see the math.

Click to make the scary numbers go away.

1) Einstein says E = mc²
2) SI says the units are Joules = kilograms × (meters per second)²
3) The speed of light, c = 299,792,458 m/s
4) 1 mole of U235 is 0.235044 kg (235 g or ½ lbs) - but how much of that is converted to energy?

Under bombardment from free neutrons, U235 (235.0474 atomic masses, abbreviated as u) may fission into a Krypton-89 atom (88.91 u), a Barium-144 atom (143.92 u), and two free neutrons (2 u). Thus, an original mass of 235.0474 u fissions into 234.83 u (88.91 + 143.92 + 2), leaving 0.2174 u converted to energy.

A mole is the number of atoms it takes to convert from atomic units (u) to grams (g). Thus, using a mole of U235 atoms instead of just one converts all the measurements in u to g.

5) Thus, for a mole of U235, 0.2174 g (or 0.0002174 kg) are converted to energy.

Then we throw that mass into our mass/energy conversion formula from 1) and 2), we get:
6) E (in Joules) = M (0.0002174 kg) × c² (299,792,458²)
7) E = 19,538,937,600,000 Joules ≈ 19.54 teraJoules (TJ)

8) It takes 4.186 Joules of energy to convert one gram of water 1°C.
9) Freezing to boiling for water is a range of 100°C.

From 8) and 9) we see that:
10) 418.6 J will bring 1g of water from freezing to boiling.
11) An Olympic swimming pool must be at least 2,500,000 liters of water.
12) 1 liter of water is 1 kg of water.

From 7) and 10), we see that:
13) 19,538,937,600,000 Joules / (418.6 J/g) = 46,676,870 kg of water can be brought from freezing to boiling.

From 11), 12), and 13), we see that:
14) 46,676,870 / 2.5 million = 18.67 Olympic swimming pools heated from freezing to boiling by 1 mole of U235. Because Olympic pools are defined as "at least" that size, we round down. Thus, 18.

The End.

Nuclear fission is powerful. The concept of that power in the wrong hands is frightening. Even the most peace-loving international cooperation advocate must recognize the security risk posed by nuclear terrorism.

Thus, the Obama/Biden ticket promised to hold international conferences on nuclear terrorism, first in 2009 and then periodically forever after. After campaigning on the premise that Saddam's Iraq was not a threat to global or US national security, and that the Iranian nuclear program is not a threat to global or US national security, and that various programs instituted to fight international terrorism were overreactions to the global and US national security threat posed by terrorism, Obama/Biden needed to prove they weren't universally opposed to protecting national security on principle.

Thus, they retooled the half-century old anti-nuke campaign with anti-terrorist rhetoric and sold it as a national security issue that a liberal internationalist could support - that is to say, a national security threat that could be opposed by international diplomacy and UN talks rather than military force.

It really is the absolute least they could possibly do.

Further proving their lack of interest in the topic, the first meeting has been announced for March 2010 - not sometime in 2009, as was promised. PolitiFact calls it a compromise.

Don't misunderstand - they're not wrong. Nuclear terrorism is a horrible concept, something that should be prevented and something that too little is being done to prevent. There are many places in the world where cold war era nuclear bombs and rockets are being protected by decaying or failed security systems, and the risk of them being found operational, repaired, or even just studied is a serious nuclear proliferation risk. Aside from that, Uranium is found naturally throughout the Earth's crust at about 40 times the rate of silver, though only 0.72% of that is the U235 that is useful for nuclear reactions. That means U235 is about 1/4th as common as silver. That is a LOT of potential for mining by terrorists.

But it should be an important detail of a defensive foreign policy of a much broader scope. Leaving Iraq, the possibility of a troop surge in Afghanistan, and diplomacy about nuclear terrorism do not combine Voltron-style to form a comprehensive plan for national defense. I have, in the past, expressed hope that Obama is beginning to understand that and develop his defense policy in his breaking of anti-defense promises, but his having made those promises shows a great gap between the defense policy he should have and what he vocally advocates.

I do technically support Obama's position on this issue so I'm counting it as a point in his favor, but his overall weakness on the issue of defense is understated because of his lack of strong promises in that regard.

In case you're curious, the score so far is 9 points in support vs. 10 points opposed. 47% correct is an F in any classroom I know of, but it's not that bad for government efficiency. Also, the informal mathematical proof that a mole of U235 will boil 18 Olympic pools was a ton of fun to research and write. I wish I could get a job doing stuff like that.